BP: 2023 World Energy Outlook Report

The Outlook's three main scenarios aim to explore the range of possible outcomes for the transformation of the global energy system over the next 30 years. Understanding the range of uncertain outcomes will help bp develop resilient strategies for the different speeds and ways in w hich energy system transitions may be experienced.

The events of the past year have highlighted the complexity and interconnectedness of the global energy system. The heightened focus on energy security resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to accelerate the energy transition as countries try to increase their d Omestic energy production, much Of Which is likely to come from renewables and other non-fossil fuels.

However, these events also demonstrated that relatively small fluctuations in energy supply can lead to serious economic and social costs, which highlights the importance of a harmonious and orderly low-carbon energy transition, so that the decline in world fossil energy y consumption can be matched with global The decline in fossil energy supplies echoes that.

The 'Rapid Transition' and 'Net Zero' scenarios explore how different elements of the energy system would change on a transition pathway to achieve significant reductions in carbon emissions by 2050 - around 75% in the 'Rapid Transition' scenario , carbon emissions would be reduced by more than 95% in a "net zero" scenario. Both scenarios assume a substantial tightening of global climate policy. Assumptions in the Net Zero scenario also include shifts in societal behavior and consumer preferences that support increased energy efficiency and the use of low-carbon energy sources.

The New Power scenario is designed to reflect the overall trajectory of the current global energy system, taking into account government decarbonization ambitions and commitments that have increased significantly in recent years. In this scenario, global carbon emissions peak in the 2020s, and around 2050, global carbon emissions are about 30% lower than in 2019. The carbon budget is running out. Despite a marked increase in government ambition, CO2 emissions have increased every year (except 2020) since the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. The longer the delay in taking decisive action to sustainably reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the greater the likely economic and social costs.

In some countries, government support for the energy transition has been further strengthened, including the passage of the Inflation Cut Act in the United States. But the enormous challenge of decarbonisation means we need more support, including policies to facilitate fast-track licensing and approval of low-carbon energy and infrastructure.

The Russian-Ukraine conflict has caused fluctuations in global energy supply and corresponding energy shortages, highlighting the importance of addressing the three elements of the "energy triple challenge": security, affordability and lower carbon.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has far-reaching implications for the global energy system. The heightened focus on energy security has accelerated the energy transition by increasing the need for domestic production of renewable energy and other non-fossil fuels.

The energy demand structure changes under all three scenarios: the importance of fossil energy gradually decreases, the proportion of renewable energy increases, and the degree of electrification of final energy increases. A low-carbon transition requires a range of other energy sources and technologies, including low-carbon hydrogen, modern bioenergy, and carbon capture, utilization and storage.

Oil demand declines over the Outlook period as the use of oil in road traffic decreases as operating vehicle efficiency improves and road vehicle electrification accelerates. But even so, under the three scenarios, oil will continue to play an important role in the global energy system over the next 15-20 years.

The outlook for natural gas depends on the speed of the energy transition, with increased gas demand from economic growth and industrialization in emerging economies offset by a transition to lower-carbon energy sources in developed countries.

Article source: accesspath